Gartner predicts end of blogging hype

Novelty value will wear off, says analyst

Blogging will peak in 2007, Gartner predicts, levelling off when the number of writers who maintain a personal website reaches 100 million.

Gartner analysts expect that the novelty value of the medium will wear off as most people who are interested in the phenomenon have checked it out, and new bloggers will offset the number of writers who abandon their creation out of boredom.

The firm estimates that there are more than 200 million former bloggers who have ceased posting to their online diaries.

Gartner made the assertion as part of its top 10 predictions for 2007. The firm also believes that Windows Vista will be Microsoft's last major update of its Windows operating system.

The software vendor is expected to borrow a page from the book of open source projects and create a modular operating system that allows for individual components to be updated.

Gartner's visionaries, however, refused to entertain pessimistic views about Microsoft's future fuelled by the rise online application providers such as Google and Salesforce.com.